By Sean Gentille, Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldman
The Minnesota Wild, after getting their best player and No. 1 center back for the stretch run, still almost literally waited until the last possible second to clinch their spot in the Stanley Cup playoffs.
The Vegas Golden Knights, on other hand, had some time to kill after locking up their spot on April 1 and the Pacific Division title on Saturday night, so they rested their big guns over the last few days.
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Let’s hear it for different approaches. For now, they’re in the same place: four wins away from the second round.
The odds
The last time these two teams faced in the playoffs, the series was a tightly-contested battle that went the distance. Don’t expect a repeat — Vegas holds a considerable edge this time around.
That’s Vegas’ reward for winning the Pacific: a date with one of the West’s weakest playoff teams. It would take a lot for the Wild to pull off the upset, though it’s not impossible now that the team is healthy. At their best, the Wild can hang with the elite in the West and showed that to start the season.
What separates the Wild from a team like the Golden Knights, though, is being able to deliver their A-game on a consistent basis — even through injuries. That consistency wins championships and if the Wild can’t prove they have it against a contender, it’ll be a familiar end for them: a first-round exit.
The numbers
This series is a matchup of two solid defensive teams. Minnesota has maintained its identity of being sound defensively. The Wild allow a higher rate of shot attempts against but keep their opponents to the outside, only giving up 2.28 xGA/60.
Vegas allows fewer shots than the Wild, but allows more high-quality chances. Goaltending helps make up for that and closes the gap in goals against between these teams.
The Golden Knights separate themselves in short-handed situations to gain the plus-six edge in Defensive Rating. The Wild’s penalty kill has been better below the surface than last year, but the goaltenders have struggled behind their workloads. Minnesota’s 10.2 GA/60 on the PK is second to last in the league, ahead of only the Red Wings.
That could be a problem against a high-scoring Golden Knights power play. Vegas has the advantage here, with the second-best scoring rate in the league that trails only the Jets. The Wild’s expected goal rate isn’t too far behind Vegas, but this team didn’t convert on nearly as many of their chances. Injuries to Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek may explain it. But it’s not like this group has had the most potent offense at even strength, either.
The Wild are a bottom-five team in expected and actual goal generation at five-on-five. Again, a healthy group could change that in Round 1, but this has been a part of their identity for some time. This team has a minus-16 Offensive Rating for a reason, the worst of any playoff team and a bottom 10 mark league-wide. The Golden Knights’ five-on-five attack helps power them to a plus-12.
The big question
Can Kirill Kaprizov steal his first series?
With all due respect to Jack Eichel, the best player in this series is Kirill Kaprizov. Minnesota’s superstar was the Hart trophy favorite during the first half of the season before an injury derailed his campaign.
He’s back now with a daunting task ahead of him: take down the Golden Knights.
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Hockey is a team game and that job does not fall on Kaprizov alone. But with the mismatch in depth across the board, the series will fall on him to be the difference. The league’s very best forwards — Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Nikita Kucherov — have shown the ability to put their team on their back and singlehandedly will them to victory. Their ability to elevate their games to extreme heights in high pressure situations is part of what makes them top-five players. For Kaprizov to prove he belongs, stealing this series would go a long way.
By Net Rating, Kaprizov has the juice to do that. His plus-18 rating puts him right next to David Pastrnak in the next tier below guys like MacKinnon and Kucherov: the tier just outside the top five. Earlier this season, though, he was pushing for a higher placement and at the height of his powers had the same rating as Kucherov.
For the season, Kaprizov had a plus-13.1 Net Rating, a plus-26.2 pace that ends up a shade ahead of Kucherov’s plus-25.8 pace. What that means is that Kaprizov was Kucherov-level good this year, an extremely high bar to clear. While Kaprizov’s point pace was lower, he did score at a higher rate and tilted the ice more at five-on-five — with significantly less help around him. That degree of difficulty is what elevated Kaprizov’s value into the same realm as Kucherov.
But to truly be on the same level, Kaprizov has to show he can deliver as consistently as Kucherov does. That starts in the postseason where Kucherov has proven to be a big-game player. Kaprizov hasn’t.
Over three first-round exits, Kaprizov has had one strong series (scoring seven goals in six games in 2021-22 against the Blues) sandwiched by two mostly dismal ones. In 2021 he had three points in seven games against Vegas. In 2023 he had just one point in six games against the Stars. That’s not close to good enough.
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This version of Kaprizov feels different after taking a massive leap towards superstardom in the season’s first half, but there’s also the question of how Kaprizov fares after missing months with a lower-body injury that required surgery. That adds another wrinkle to the equation, one that creates a wide range of expectations for Kaprizov in this series — a range that could very well dictate the end result.
If Kaprizov can be Kucherov-level good, the Wild have a real shot at an upset and his first-half performance suggests that’s a very real possibility.
If, however, Kaprizov wilts when it matters or simply struggles after returning from injury, this series will be over quickly. That, too, is a real possibility.
The X-factor
Is it Zeev Buium time?
If the Wild couldn’t imagine a scenario in which they’d need Buium, he wouldn’t be on the roster. Instead Buium, a remarkably talented defenseman out of the University of Denver who led his team to an NCAA championship last season, is burning the first year of his entry-level contract.
Where he’d fit in with the Wild is clear. They have one of the least offensively impactful group of defensemen in the league, and Buium’s ability in that area is almost startling; he led NCAA defensemen in points (48), ranked second among all NCAA players in assists (35) and quarterbacked a power play that clicked at nearly 30 percent.
Minnesota, meanwhile, has only one defenseman with a positive Offensive Rating (Jared Spurgeon) along with a sub-mediocre power play. John Hynes’ decision to scratch Buium in his only game since joining the Wild is, on some level, understandable; they hadn’t yet clinched a playoff spot. Still, given Vegas’ top-down strength and the total lack of offensive punch Minnesota has shown down the stretch, Buium certainly seems capable of adding something to the mix, especially in sheltered minutes. If the Wild drop an early game or two, there’s no reason not to roll the dice.
The rosters
Kaprizov may be the most valuable player in this series, but Eichel is no pushover, either.
It took time for Eichel to experience playoff hockey — eight regular seasons, to be exact. There were questions on whether he had what it took to thrive in a playoff environment, and that is exactly what he did on his path to his first Stanley Cup in 2023. Playoff Eichel isn’t just a solid performer; he has been Conn Smyth-caliber.
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Eichel is an ace in transition. He is one of the best puck movers in the league, thanks to his ability to generate scoring chances off the rush and set his teammates up with high-danger passes. And over the last few years, he has added to his toolbox by becoming more of an all-around threat. The Golden Knights deploy him and Mark Stone, who is actually coming into this postseason healthy, against top competition. In this series, that likely means facing a heavy dose of Kaprizov.
If the Wild’s current line combinations hold, the coaches may not try to shield Kaprizov from the Eichel line on home ice. He is slotted alongside Matt Boldy and Joel Eriksson Ek, who tend to shoulder matchup minutes for the Wild. It could make for a power-versus-power battle throughout this series.
Boldy has been a solid contributor for the Wild all season. He has been a reliable scorer who helps Minnesota cycle the puck and control play in the offensive zone. But his game has trended up over the last month of action. Having Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek back adds to that. In 134 minutes of five-on-five action, this line is rocking a 68 percent expected goal share and outscoring opponents 6-2.
The problem with keeping these three together is that it makes the Wild’s lineup very top-heavy, with their two best wingers and number one center together. Splitting them up isn’t a perfect solution, considering how many shutdown options the Golden Knights have.
Up front, Eichel and Stone can play matchup minutes. So can William Karlsson and Reilly Smith on the third line when needed. Add in two defensive pairs — Shea Theodore-Brayden McNabb and Alex Pietrangelo-Noah Hanifin — and there are no easy minutes for the Wild’s best.
A healthy Karlsson is a real plus for the Golden Knights, solidifying their strength down the middle. He isn’t getting as many puck touches in his own zone as last year, and his playmaking isn’t at the heights of 2022-23, either. But having Smith back has made up for that; he is retrieving more pucks and exiting the zone more while Karlsson transitions the Golden Knights into the offensive zone.
Between Eichel and Karlsson, Tomas Hertl has hit his stride in Vegas. With 2.93 points per 60 in 73 games, he is scoring at the second-highest rate in his career. An uptick in shot volume and quality plays into that, and so does his line-mate Pavel Dorofeyev, who is one of the most frequent shooters in the league.
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All the work the Golden Knights have put into their strength down the middle came at the cost of their winger depth. But Dorofeyev has emerged as a real bright spot on the wing as the secondary scoring this team needed. Brandon Saad was a low-key reclamation project who revitalized his game in Vegas. Together with Hertl, the second line generates a ton of offense and controls play in their minutes with a 66 percent expected goal rate.
Add Nicolas Roy to round out Vegas’ center depth and it’s hard to stack up. The Wild can’t, not even with Eriksson Ek’s return and Marco Rossi’s development. That extends past the center position and to the wings. Mats Zuccarello is a core part of Minnesota’s top six, and Marcus Foligno has stepped up in the middle six. But the Golden Knights are a deeper team with the shutdown talent to slow down Minnesota’s best.
Theodore isn’t just the most valuable defenseman in this series — he’s a league-wide standout in all three zones. McNabb has been a perfect complement on his left for the last four years. Pietrangelo and Hanfin aren’t as stout in their own zone as they used to be, but have made up for it offensively this season.
The Wild’s top four is no pushover, either. Brock Faber and Jonas Brodin can be incredibly stingy against top competition. Jacob Middleton and Jared Spurgeon make for a strong second pair, too — the Wild have only given up 1.84 xGA/60 in their minutes, and even less has ended up in the back of the net.
Those top two pairs can be difference-makers, but there have been so many injuries this season that it’s tough to project whether they will have the juice against such a deep opponent now. It doesn’t help that the third pair is a bigger weakness for Minnesota, with a combined minus-13 Net Rating compared to a minus-eight for Vegas.
The Golden Knights’ advantages extend to the blue paint. Fillip Gustavsson has had a bounce-back year in Minnesota, but there are still some inconsistencies. Marc-Andre Fleury jumping back in goal when needed against his former team would be a good story, but his level isn’t where this team needs. Adin Hill has the edge and the playoff pedigree here over Gustavsson.
The key matchup
Mark Stone vs. Joel Eriksson Ek
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It’s always a treat to watch elite two-way players, and this series features a pair of them in Eriksson Ek and Stone. Both are their team’s No. 2 forwards in terms of overall impact, with Eichel beating out Stone and Kaprizov beating out Eriksson Ek — and both still carry outsized roles in their team’s success.
Stone had the better regular season overall, producing nearly a point per game and staying relatively healthy. Eriksson Ek struggled with an injury before eventually exiting the lineup for 22 games between Feb. 22 and April 9, but came back with a vengeance, scoring four goals in a crucial win over San Jose.
It’ll be interesting to see if Stone is matched up against Eriksson Ek and Kaprizov early on; with those two finally back for the final four games of the regular season, Minnesota out-attempted its opponents 47-21 and out-chanced them 18-7.
The bottom line
It’s been 10 years since the Wild have advanced to the second round, and at this rate, it may take at least another. Upsets happen, and anyone could play spoiler, but the Golden Knights come into this series with a considerable advantage.
References
Understanding projection uncertainty
Resources
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
(Photo of Matt Boldy and Mark Stone: Ethan Miller / Getty Images)
